Speaking at RBF Global Finance Forum

I recently had the opportunity to present my research, “To What Extent Can Public Equity Indices Statistically Hedge Real Purchasing Power Loss in Compounded Structural Emerging‑Market Crises? An Explainable ML‑Based Assessment,” at the RBF Global Finance Forum 2026, hosted by King Faisal University in Al Ahsa, Saudi Arabia.

Presenting this work in a region that itself closely observes global macro‑financial transitions added particular relevance and urgency to the discussion.

Our study investigates whether local public equity indices can meaningfully protect real purchasing power during periods of compounded structural collapse in emerging markets. Rather than relying on linear or nominal return assumptions, the analysis applies non‑linear multiplicative real return calculations consistent with Fisher‑parity logic, evaluated from both domestic and foreign investor perspectives.

Methodologically, the paper integrates quantile regression, tail‑dependence copula analysis, and explainable machine learning via SHAP values to identify when and why equity‑based hedging mechanisms fail.

The empirical focus is on three recent and highly instructive crisis episodes: Turkey (2018), Nigeria (2020), and Pakistan (2021). These cases were deliberately chosen due to improved post‑2018 data standardization and because they span distinct monetary regimes, balance‑of‑payments pressures, and political‑economic triggers.

Despite their differences, a common pattern emerges. During extreme downside macroeconomic states—precisely when inflation, currency depreciation, and capital flight interact—public equity indices exhibit a systematic breakdown in their ability to hedge real purchasing power loss.

Our core conclusion is uncomfortable but necessary: equities do not behave as reliable inflation or devaluation hedges under compounded structural stress. Conventional asset‑pricing intuition implicitly assumes market continuity, institutional credibility, and functioning monetary transmission. In crisis environments where these assumptions collapse simultaneously, equity prices often reflect nominal growth narratives while real consumption capacity deteriorates sharply.

From my perspective, the study has important implications for policymakers, institutional investors, and households alike. Treating equities as a universal real‑value safeguard in emerging markets risks overstating their protective capacity and understating tail risks. More context‑sensitive, regime‑aware strategies—potentially combining capital controls analysis, real asset proxies, and adaptive portfolio design—are essential.

Presenting this work reinforced my belief that financial theory must be stress‑tested where it is most fragile, not where it performs best. Emerging‑market crises are not edge cases; they are laboratories for understanding the true limits of financial protection.